Other10 August, 20262 min read
Syria Finance Minister Mohammed Yisr Barnieh Forecasts 11.3% Economic Growth in 2026
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Syria’s economy expected to grow 11.3% in 2026, per Finance Minister Bernia. Budget revenues forecast to exceed $8 billion in 2026.
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Growth targets for 2026
Syria’s Minister of Finance Mohammed Yisr Barnieh forecast that the Syrian economy will grow by 11.3% in 2026 and that several sectors could recover to pre-2011 production levels by 2030. In statements to SANA, Barnieh said budget revenues could exceed $8 billion this year, compared with $3.5 billion in 2025, and he linked the outlook to growth in services and trade, agriculture after a good rainy season, and a resumption of activity in oil, gas, and mineral resources.
Barnieh said the government expects growth to remain high in the coming years, estimating 9.7% growth in 2027 compared with about 4% growth recorded in 2025. He also tied the projections to IMF forecasts that place Syrian economic growth above 10% in 2026, and he said the estimates are periodically updated through the macroeconomic and fiscal forecasting unit of the Ministry as part of preparing and executing the state budget.
Tax reform and investment
Barnieh outlined a new tax policy that aims to simplify procedures, reduce tax rates applied to individuals and businesses, and offer incentives aimed at improving the competitiveness of the Syrian tax system. He said the objective is to stimulate economic activity, favor the private sector, ease the tax burden on low-income people, and create more favorable conditions for reopening industrial, commercial, and tourist facilities that remain paralyzed or damaged.
Barnieh said the new system includes incentives linked to employment and benefits for companies that adopt new technologies and modern production lines, and he expressed hope that it will take effect in early 2027. In parallel, he said the Ministry of Finance is working with the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology to establish a national fund to support entrepreneurs and startups in the technology sector, partially financed with resources from telecommunications.
From recovery to living standards
Barnieh said the government’s priority is to ensure that high growth is sustainable and inclusive and translates into an improvement in the population’s living conditions, alongside strengthening social protection networks. He said extraordinary resources would be mainly directed to investment projects in affected areas and to support entrepreneurship and startups linked to new technologies, while he described around 75% of 2026 revenue as coming from sources considered sustainable.
Barnieh stressed that one of the government’s main challenges is converting high growth rates into tangible improvements in purchasing power and living conditions, and he said the state is working on launching a national strategy to combat poverty, improve livelihoods, and strengthen social protection networks. The reporting also referenced President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s announcement that Syria’s budget for 2026 amounts to $10.5 billion, describing it as an increase of almost fivefold compared to the 2024 budget and citing expectations that GDP this year would reach between $50 and $60 billion.