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Global Carbon Project Projects Fossil CO2 Emissions Fall 0.4% in 2026 After Iran Conflict
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Fossil CO2 emissions expected to fall 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion tonnes. Decline attributed to Iran conflict oil shock and expansion of solar/wind energy.
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Fossil CO2 dips in 2026
The Global Carbon Project projects that fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions will fall by around 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes of CO2, as the Iran conflict disrupts oil use and energy prices. The Global Carbon Project also projects that total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use will reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026, marginally above 42.8GtCO2 in 2025. The Global Carbon Project’s 21st edition of the annual “global carbon budget” report links the small fossil decline largely to a 1.9% drop in emissions from oil and to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
The Global Carbon Project’s projections for fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions in 2026 are preliminary, with a range that spans a fall of -1.5% to a rise of +0.6%. The Global Carbon Project’s projections also anticipate that emissions from land-use change, including deforestation, will rise in 2026, driven by peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia.
Oil shock, not a peak
Glen Peters, a scientist at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, said the study’s 2026 decline is “largely driven by the war in Iran” and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Glen Peters also cautioned that “a drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change,” describing a pattern where oil emissions go up and then “suddenly, bang, down 2%.” Pierre Friedlingstein, of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, said “The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies,” while warning that the changes are not yet enough for a sustained decline.
The Global Carbon Project’s projections attribute the fossil decline to a 1.9% drop in oil emissions and a 0.3% fall in natural gas emissions, while coal emissions continue to increase slightly. The Global Carbon Project’s projections also estimate that the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C is 150GtCO2, or less than four years of current emissions.
Land-use rise and COP31
The Global Carbon Project projects that total CO2 emissions will rise in 2026 because a projected rise in land-use emissions is expected to more than offset the fossil decline. The Global Carbon Project projects that land-use emissions will rise in 2026, driven by peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia and linked to the development of a strong El Niño event this year. The Global Carbon Project’s report also projects that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.
UN leaders urged governments to move faster on climate change mitigation efforts as the 2026 Global Carbon Budget was released alongside the two-week COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. Pierre Friedlingstein said, “a reduction driven in part by geopolitical crises is not a sustainable climate solution,” as the study framed the fossil dip as temporary rather than structural.