Full story
Hormuz reopening talks
Diplomatic contacts over reopening the Strait of Hormuz accelerated as Iran and Oman moved toward a draft agreement on commercial shipping, with Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei saying Wednesday that the proposed deal was in the final stages of drafting.
“with the aim of determining a safe traffic route for commercial shipping in this strait”
Baghaei said the two Persian Gulf neighbors had been engaged in their own talks for the past two months “with the aim of determining a safe traffic route for commercial shipping in this strait,” and he added that the joint statement was in the “final review and drafting stage” if “some third parties do not obstruct work in this regard.”
The negotiations unfolded alongside U.S. pressure and uncertainty, with Reuters reporting that Iran had “warned” Gulf states that any renewed U.S. strike on its territory would lead to a response targeting “critical energy infrastructure across the region.”
In parallel, Trump publicly tied the timeline to force, saying “We’ll know within 48 hours. Things are moving nicely,” while CNN reported Wednesday afternoon that the deal might wait until Friday and a senior Gulf official put the chance of reaching it at “a ‘50-50’ chance.”
Competing signals and voices
Iranian state media and officials cast doubt on how quickly any agreement would translate into reopening, with CNN Arabic reporting that Iranian IRIB said any future Iran-Oman agreement “has nothing to do with reopening the strait at the present time.”
CNN Arabic also quoted Hassan Qeshqavi, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, saying the waterway “would not return to its pre-war status "under any circumstances."”
Trump, meanwhile, continued to project urgency in public remarks, telling Fox News that “The strait will open very soon, or else they will face a very strong blow, and then the strait will be opened.”
The dispute over who controls the strait remained central, with Reuters reporting that talks were officially held only between Iran and Oman but that “in practice the U.S. is also involved,” and with the same Reuters account saying the Iranian delegation did not include the “voice” of the Revolutionary Guards, which would be required to give final approval.
What’s at stake next
The stakes for shipping and regional security were framed through the potential structure of any temporary arrangement, including a 60-day approach described as renewable, with vessels entering the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and leaving through a route controlled by Oman.
“The plan would eventually replace the current two-lane system with a single shared corridor after naval mines are cleared”
The National reported that the plan would replace the current two-lane system with a single shared corridor after naval mines are cleared, and it said the June 17 understanding set out the basis for reopening the strait and negotiating a longer-term ceasefire during a 60-day pause in hostilities.
Even as diplomacy advanced, the sources tied the talks to ongoing military risk, with the Reuters account saying the contacts were taking place against “the constant fear that the war could resume if they fail,” and with CNBC noting that U.S. Central Command insisted in an X post Tuesday that the “southern route through the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open for all commercial vessels seeking to transit the international waterway.”
In the background of the negotiations, the sources also pointed to continued vulnerability for maritime traffic, including a maritime incident Tuesday when a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile off Oman, underscoring that commercial shipping remained exposed while the agreement remained unresolved.
