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Hormuz talks pause, war impacts
Iran and the United States returned to mediated talks and their military action was temporarily suspended, but the war continued to disrupt international maritime corridors beyond the Strait of Hormuz and domestic markets.
“Iran and the United States have returned to mediated talks, and their military action is temporarily suspended”
The Al Jazeera report said the near-total closure of the strategic waterway, disruptions in the Red Sea by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, and Ukraine attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea kept tensions high.
It also said Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum reported that Iran sold $11.5bn of crude oil during the war and $6.5bn during the period of the now-suspended memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with the US last month.
The same report warned that a prolonged second blockade risks further reducing Iran’s export revenues and piling pressure on Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports pass.
Al Jazeera added that the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said that as of Saturday, soldiers had redirected 12 commercial vessels trying to run the blockade that has been in place since mid-July, disabled two and boarded two “to ensure total compliance”.
Debate over next moves
As the scope of the confrontation grew, عكاظ said American reports did not rule out the possibility of Washington and Tehran moving into ground operations inside Iran, while Foreign Policy considered a full-scale invasion unlikely under current conditions.
The عكاظ report said Foreign Policy argued the most realistic scenario is not the occupation of Iranian territory, but limited ground operations targeting strategic sites or islands of military and economic importance.
It added that Newsweek focused on the Hormuz Strait crisis as the heart of the confrontation, describing the waterway as a strategic pressure card Iran uses to influence international shipping.
In parallel, El País framed Tehran’s approach around preserving strategic control of Hormuz, saying that when on June 17 Iran and the United States signed the memorandum of understanding, the officials seemed to be talking about different documents.
El País quoted political scientist Mohammad Ghaedi, via WhatsApp messages from the United States, saying that for Iran “the collection of tolls for transit through this sea lane matters less than changing the regional security order and strengthening deterrence.”
Economic and insurance fallout
The war’s economic pressure showed up in shipping costs and insurance, with همشهری آنلاین reporting that war-risk premiums and reduced traffic on vital routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb raised costs for shipping and insurance industries.
“Insurance on Hormuz-bound ships to rise from 1–3% before the war to 7.5–10% of ship value”
It said rising marine insurance costs went from $5–8 million in insurance costs for a 270,000-ton tanker before the war to approximately $21 million based on current market rates and to $37.8 million at the peak of the conflict (March, for example).
The same report said insurance on Hormuz-bound ships rose from 1–3% before the war to 7.5–10% of ship value after the war, while Hormuz daily traffic fell from 140 ships to as few as 2 ships.
El País warned that the possible blockade of the Red Sea, through which around 10% of world oil passes, threatens energy markets and also the interests of Saudi Arabia, which it said was exporting about four million barrels per day through the Red Sea.
El País added that Brent crude was around $100 and that after two Saudi oil tankers were attacked Thursday by Yemen’s Houthi forces allied with Iran, Brent broke the psychological barrier of $100.