U.S. Economy Sheds 23,000 Jobs in July as Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

US unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, report shows The figure departs from the labor market's resilient performance in 2026. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, demonstrating a wobbly labor market as shoppers continued to withstand a surge of inflation set off by the Iran war. The U.S. lost 23,000 jobs in July, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report, which marked a decline from 57,000 jobs added in June. The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.2% in June to 4.1% in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards. The lackluster figure recorded in July departs from largely resilient performance for the labor market so far in 2026, despite a historic oil shock that has driven up fuel prices and hiked supply-chain costs for a host of other goods. A government report issued last week showed a steeper slowdown in gross domestic product than expected over three months ending in June, however, suggesting strain in the underlying economy over the early months of the war. The U.S. added an average of 92,000 jobs per month over the first half of 2026, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed. That pace marks an improvement from an average of about 7,000 jobs lost per month over the second half of 2025. The Iran war drove up gasoline prices and catapulted inflation to a three-year high in May. A preliminary peace agreement in June offered up some relief, but a burst of on-again, off-again fighting in recent weeks caused crude prices to rise again. The combination of elevated inflation and a resilient labor market has raised the chances of an interest rate hike, futures markets show. Investors peg the odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month at about 56%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. The sluggish performance in July, however, could complicate a potential rate increase next month, Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG, told ABC News Live. "This doesn’t take a rate hike off the table in the month of September but it makes it much more fraught with risk now to the labor market if inflation remains persistent," Swonk said. The Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its meeting last week, but central bankers appeared divided over the move. Three of the 12 members on the Fed's policymaking board voted in favor of a rate hike, marking the largest number of dissenters casting ballots in the same direction since 2016. The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who took the helm of the central bank this summer, has repeatedly vowed to dial back inflation. "The committee remains resolute -- you’ve heard this before -- that we will deliver price stability," Warsh told reporters in Washington, D.C., last week.

It was a terrible month for the US labor market in July — but for investors, that's not necessarily bad news. US stocks moved higher even as data showed the US lose 23,000 payrolls in July, a huge miss from expectations of 85,000 jobs added. The bad news wasn't confined to July, either. Job gains in the prior two months were also revised downward, with the US adding 20,000 (instead of the initial 57,000) jobs in June and 63,000 (instead of 129,000) jobs in May. The unemployment rate ticked slightly lower as labor force participation declined. It was one of the worst months for the labor market in recent memory — but in markets, the news has set off a chain reaction that has led investors to spin the weak results as a potential positive. Here's where US indexes stood around 12:15 p.m. ET: - S&P 500: 7,754.68, up 0.58% - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 53,984.61, up 0.18% (+99.51 points) - Nasdaq 100: 29,698.85, up 1.1% Here's the tension investors are navigating after the latest jobs data: The good news: a weaker job market means the Fed won't be in a rush to raise interet rates, something investors have feared this year as a potential fresh headwind for stocks. Investors immediately trimmed their rate expectations after digesting the latest jobs report. Markets were pricing in a 75% probability that the Fed would raise rates through the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from 85% on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 5 basis points on Friday morning as bond investors recalibrated rate views. The bad news: a weaker job market could also the US is closer to a recession. The latest data is also coming at a precarious time for the US economy, with markets still assessing the full impact of the Iran war and President Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation. "Friday's jobs report was not just much weaker-than-expected, it showed that the economy shed jobs during July, which puts the Federal Reserve in a conundrum, since inflation is still elevated and sticky," Brent Wilsey, the chief investment officer at Wilsey Asset Management, wrote in a note on Friday. For now, investors appear to be leaning toward the idea that the weak jobs data is a positive — but there's no telling if future economic prints will scramble the outlook. Markets are awaiting next week's July inflation report and updated estimates for GDP at the end of the month. "Today's report buys markets some breathing room, but only temporarily. With policymakers offering little in the way of forward guidance, next week's inflation figures now loom even larger and could quickly put rate hike fears back on the table," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a Friday note. The Nasdaq 100 briefly rose as much as than 1%. Here were some of the notable moves: Here were the biggest moves in the tech sector: - Atlassian: +34% - Cloudflare: +14% - SanDisk: +3% - AMD: +2% - iShares Semiconductor ETF: +2% - Micron: +2%

The U.S. economy saw an unexpected declined in jobs during July while the unemployment rate edged lower, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture. Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month, compared with a downwardly revised 20,000 for June. The Dow Jones consensus forecast had been looking for a gain of 83,000. At the same time, the unemployment slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years, another indication that fewer Americans were working or looking for jobs. In addition to the weak numbers for June and July, the final count for May was revised down to 63,000, or 66,000 lower than the prior estimate. The revised numbers brought the 12-month average down to just 34,000. "The July employment report solidified that the labor market is not out of the woods quite yet," said Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter. The drop was led by a 50,000 decline in local government education and a loss of 19,000 retail jobs. Financial activities also posted a fall of 14,000 and leisure and hospitality lost 40,000, a possible consequence of the World Cup tournament ending. Healthcare, which has been the leading sector for job creation, rose by 22,000, which was below its 12-month average of 36,000. Construction also saw an increase of 22,000. Private payrolls did increase for the month, up 30,000 as government jobs declined by 53,000. While jobs held flat, worker pay also saw virtually no gain during the month. Average hourly earnings increased by just 2 cents, bringing the 12-month average down to 3.2%, below the forecast increase of 3.5% and the lowest since May 2021. The report comes with Federal Reserve policymakers split on where interest rates should head in an economy where the labor market had been improving from a moribund year in 2025 while inflation has remained well above the central bank's 2% target. In recent days, several Fed officials have spoken in favor of raising rates as soon as September if the pace of price increases doesn't ease. The Federal Open Market Committee last week voted 9-3 to hold its benchmark rate in place. Following the jobs report, traders shifted their bets on when the Fed might hike. Odds for a move in September fell to 44% and to 58.3% for October, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge of futures prices. Stock market futures, meanwhile, posted solid gains amid the expectations for a more dovish Fed. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up close to 200 points and Treasury yields plummeted after being around the flatline earlier in the session. "This morning's report is a game changer in the sense that all of the recent focus has been on inflation and this report highlights the risks that are embedded in the labor market as well," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management. "Before today, many were expecting that the Fed had no choice but to raise rates in order to fight stubbornly high inflation, because the job market was so strong, but this report shows that isn't the case." Details of the report confirmed the weak headline numbers. Household employment, which measures the total of people reporting that they are working and is used to calculate the unemployment rate, fell by 87,000. However, the unemployment rate declined because of a decrease of 264,000 in the labor force. Outside of the Covid era, the participation rate is at its lowest since the middle part of 1976. "While the unemployment rate is falling, that is mostly for the wrong reason—not enough workers," wrote Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. "Immigration compensated for the aging of the workforce in the first few years of the post-pandemic expansion, but that's not happening anymore." The employment-to-population ratio fell again, slipping to 58.9% for its lowest level since May 2014. An alternative jobless measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.9%.

A summer hiring slump dogged the US labor market in July as the economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, according to new data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% as more people left the labor force. July’s job gains marked a sharp slowdown from June’s total, which was downwardly revised to 20,000 from 57,000. Following revisions, the jobs created in May were essentially halved, dropping to 66,000 from 129,000. Workers’ pay gains slowed to a five-year low. The July report fell far short of economists’ expectations for a 95,000-job gain. It’s always cautioned that one month does not make a trend, and initial economic data snapshots are rarely that clean cut – especially post-pandemic and especially during periods of high uncertainty. However, when accounting for the nuance in July’s report (more on that below) and putting it in the context of recent months’ data, the labor market remains low-momentum, uneven and one where pay growth can’t keep up with faster-rising prices. “This was a bleak report, and it signals the labor market is stalling again,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told CNN. “You can explain away a few things for July and a few things for June; but if you step back and look at the bigger picture, the past three months have seen 20,000 average job gains – no matter how you look at it, that’s anemic.” Friday’s report adds to signs that employers are becoming more cautious about hiring as they navigate growing headwinds, which include an aging population, the rapid adoption of AI, higher oil prices, policy uncertainty and the war with Iran. Which industries added jobs The job market has been firmly lodged in a “low-hire, low-fire” dynamic that has left few opportunities for job seekers. “Price volatility may be contributing to increased hesitation from employers,” Nicole Bachaud, labor economist at ZipRecruiter, wrote in a note Friday. “With job opportunities remaining scarce, more workers are exiting the labor market entirely.” The hiring that is happening also isn’t broad-based, with the bulk coming from just one sector: healthcare and social assistance. That was the case again last month, when that sector added an estimated 22,600 jobs. “Healthcare has just been a printing press of jobs,” Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN in an interview. “But if you strip that out from private (employment, which was up 30,000 jobs in July), the cyclical hiring was only +7,000 jobs. The backdrop is still incredibly uneven.” Behind healthcare, other sectors that added jobs included construction and areas within manufacturing – industries that have benefited from the AI capital expenditure and data center boom. Sectors such as professional and business services (+18,000) and the tech-dominant information (+11,000) also added jobs. However, those gains were wiped away by outsized losses in local government (specifically, local schools) and leisure and hospitality. Seasonality quirks The World Cup was expected to be a boon for leisure and hospitality as fans filled sports bars across the country and hotels in host cities. However, in June and July, leisure and hospitality shed 43,000 jobs and 40,000 jobs, respectively, BLS data shows. “It’s difficult for me to believe that we’ve lost 83,000 jobs over the last two months in leisure and hospitality services, given that the World Cup has been going on,” Gus Faucher, chief economist at The PNC Financial Services Group, said in an interview. “But that’s a very seasonal industry where we tend to see more hiring during the summer, and it could be that seasonal adjustment factors are off for some reason and are not picking up what’s truly reflected in the labor market.” Faucher is referring to the statistical practice aimed at smoothing out time-of-year patterns to better see underlying trends. However, that methodology comes with some quirks: For example, if hiring activity doesn’t sync with historical norms (such as boosts to summer hiring at restaurants and hotels), that can come across as job losses. The 57,000-job decline in the local government sector, specifically the 49,600 jobs from local school districts, is best read as “an artifact of seasonal adjustments rather than a genuine loss of jobs,” wrote Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede. “A summer release (of district workers) running about 5% larger than the historical norm produces a 50,000-job adjusted decline out of a million-job gross swing,” he wrote in a note Friday. “Distortions of this kind typically reverse as districts staff up for the new school year.” In addition to those seasonal adjustment quirks, shifts in hiring patterns are also likely contributing to volatility, ADP’s chief economist Nela Richardson said earlier this week. High levels of macroeconomic uncertainty have resulted in hiring coming in fits and starts. Also, because of larger structural shifts (notably an aging population and a slowdown in immigration), the economy doesn’t need to add as many jobs as it once did. However, even accounting for the “funky stuff” possibly going on with the back-end seasonal adjustments, there’s still a clear trend that outside of healthcare, hiring across most industries is stalling, Long said. ‘Americans feel stuck’ It’s a labor market that’s working for some but not for all. Wage growth stalled in July as average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% from June, dropping the annual rate to 3.2%, a five-year low. Workers’ paychecks, on average, are being entirely eaten away by inflation, which measured 3.5% in the latest Consumer Price Index. “You don’t need a PhD in economics to see that the financial squeeze is real for Americans right now, and I think the second half of this year will be belt-tightening for many families,” Long said. The weaker wage dynamic picture could work in the favor of the Federal Reserve, which wants to see inflation return to 2%, Wells Fargo’s Porcelli said. The current job market is not supportive of demand-driven inflation, he said. And given that many issues with inflation are coming from the supply-side right now, the likely course of action means the Fed will stay on hold, he added. US stocks ticked up Friday after the report and Treasury yields fell as the odds for a Fed rate hike at the September meeting fell to 40%, down from 55% one day ago, according to CME FedWatch. The latest inflation data will come out next week, starting with the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday morning. Lower gas prices, which were down on average compared to June, likely helped to keep inflation tame at 3.4%, down slightly from 3.5%, EY-Parthenon economists wrote in a note Friday. But inflation at 3.4%, a recent stretch of tepid job growth and a still incredibly uncertain economic environment likely won’t bring much solace to Americans and their affordability concerns, Navy Federal’s Long said. “Americans feel stuck right now,” she said. “You’re not going to move with the mortgage rate at almost 7%. You’re not going to get a new job with hiring this anemic. People are holding on to their cars longer; they’re even holding on to their cell phones longer.” “It’s this stuck feeling, and that’s not the dynamic American economy people want,” she said. CNN’s John Towfighi contributed reporting.

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has once again insisted that the strength of the American economy warrants a lower level of interest rates, although this time he avoided targeting Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, stressing that “part of it depends on him, but not entirely.” The U.S. economy lost 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, a result far below market expectations, which had anticipated another month of job creation, according to data released by the Labor Department, though the unemployment rate fell by a tenth, to 4.1%. Moreover, job creation data from previous months has been revised downward, with May employment revised down to 63,000 new jobs from 129,000 announced, while June’s figure was revised to 20,000 new jobs from the originally estimated 57,000. Thus, combined employment for May and June was 103,000 jobs lower than previously reported. Regarding unemployment, the Labor Department estimates that in July the number of unemployed fell to 6.9 million, representing a monthly decrease of 178,000 people without jobs registered. Overall, Trump has relieved pressure on Warsh. Cutting rates “is not solely up to him,” Trump argued during an interview with Punchbowl News, reported by Europa Press, where the occupant of the White House defended Warsh, noting that he “is great.” “I’m not going to criticize him,” he added, before stating that the Fed has a “very politicized” board of directors. In any case, asked about the possibility that the U.S. central bank could raise rates before the midterm elections in November, Trump reiterated his view that the U.S. should pay the world’s lowest interest rate. In this regard, he argued that, “in the old days,” when good results were announced interest rates fell because credit improved, while lamenting that “now everything is different.” “If you announce excellent results, everyone gets depressed because they think you’re going to raise interest rates, but in the old days, when you announced excellent results, interest rates fell,” he commented. At the Fed’s late-July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve decided for the fifth consecutive time to hold rates in the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, although three of its nine members voted in favor of raising the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point.

The U.S. economy surprises the market negatively, which had anticipated the creation of 83,000 jobs in July, even as unemployment claims ease. The growing burden that five months of war in Iran have imposed on the U.S. economy has ultimately made its way to the labor market. In July, U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in a move that surprised analysts, who expected that the momentum would yield 83,000 new jobs. The negative data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) contrast with a positive figure indicating that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but the unexpected loss of jobs has grabbed all the headlines. After all, this is the first employment downgrade recorded in the United States since February, the month in which the coordinated attack by the United States and Israel on Iran sparked a powder keg in the Middle East, initiating an energy price crisis that continues today. So far this year, the average monthly gain has been 34,000 workers. Far from maintaining the trend, the U.S. labor market has posted its worst July since 2010. The Department of Labor has not only reported the destruction of 23,000 jobs in the last month, but has also conducted a downward retrospective revision that removes another 103,000 jobs from May and June. Among the factors helping to explain this negative evolution in employment, one can cite the trade uncertainty introduced by the different rounds of tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration in recent months; the end of temporary contracts tied to the World Cup (retail trade cut 19,000 jobs); the culmination of the academic year (the education sector lost 50,000 workers); or market worries about a gigantic investment in Artificial Intelligence that, in many cases, has no guaranteed profitability (the financial sector reduced its payroll by 14,000 and the credit sector by 9,000). The most unexpected factor, however, has been the new escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the past month. Growth slowdown: In fact, the labor setback comes after the negative economic data that had already been made public in the past weeks, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, reported that in the second quarter the country’s inflation-adjusted annualized GDP growth slowed from 2.1% to 1.5%. Analysts had already assumed some deceleration to 1.8%, but not such a substantial one. On a quarterly basis, growth was reduced by one-tenth, to 0.4%. The rise in prices: All negative data also converge in a period of considerable price increases. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has pushed crude prices up and brought the cost of a gallon of gasoline above $4.20 in the United States. Nevertheless, the pause provided by the June inflation data—coinciding with the subsequently failed ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran—led the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Its inaction, coupled with the growing public bill of paying for the war in a country with a galloping deficit, has contributed to pushing Treasury yields higher, lifting the cost of financing for the United States in the markets to levels unseen since 2007. Pressure on Trump and Warsh: In a year politically marked by the midterm elections next November, the accumulation of bad economic data, fueled on Friday by weak employment figures, increases internal pressure within the Republican ranks for the Trump Administration to end the war in Iran. Although the U.S. president stated on Thursday night and Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is virtually open and under U.S. control, the truth is that the passage remains basically impassable. The expectation now rests on a new agreement Oman is negotiating with Iran, but Tehran resists fully relinquishing control over the maritime route. Simultaneously, the situation and the employment data are multiplying voices calling on the Fed to raise rates immediately after summer to start corralling inflation, after three of the twelve members of its Board already dissented from the majority in the July meeting and favored an immediate rise. Trump himself, who has been advocating the need to curb the price of money, said on Friday that he would be understanding with Warsh, whom he helped to the presidency of the Fed, if he ends up raising rates. “I’m not going to criticize him,” he said in a television interview, arguing that “partly it depends on him, but not entirely,” and that the central bank board “is highly politicized.”

The unexpected weakness of the US labor market moves the Fed’s rate hikes further away. Based on facts observed and directly verified by our journalists or informed sources. The US economy created 23,000 non-farm jobs in July, a result well below market consensus expectations, which had anticipated another month of employment growth, according to data released this Friday by the Department of Labor, which could cool the possibility of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In addition, the employment creation figures for the two previous months have been revised downward, lowering May’s new jobs to 63,000, compared with the 129,000 announced, while June’s figure was revised to 20,000 new jobs, instead of the 57,000 estimated. Thus, the combined May–June employment was 103,000 jobs lower than previously reported. Separately, although the unemployment rate fell by one tenth in July to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month, this decline largely reflected a drop in the labor force, with 264,000 people leaving the labor force, reducing the participation rate to 61.4%. In its July labor market analysis, the Department of Labor noted that local public education employment fell by 50,000 jobs, while retail trade lost 19,000 jobs and financial activities continued their downward trend with the destruction of 14,000 positions in July. By contrast, employment in the health care sector continued its upward trend (+22,000), but at a slower pace. In the seventh month of the year, the average hourly wage for all private nonfarm sector employees was $37.62, up 3.2% from a year earlier, slowing from 3.5% in the prior month. Regarding unemployment, the Department of Labor estimates that in July the number of unemployed fell to 6.9 million, a monthly drop of 178,000 people without work registered. Impact on the Fed: “The July jobs report was far weaker than expected,” acknowledged Nancy Vanden Houten, head of US economics at Oxford Economics, who says the report reinforces the evidence that the labor market “is not overheating.” Thus, the expert believes that the published data constitute a new incentive for the Fed to “keep monetary policy unchanged for an extended period,” as inflation driven by higher oil prices, tariffs, and AI development declines. On the other hand, James Knightley, ING Research economist, commented that the unexpected weakness in the US labor market “raises serious doubts about Fed rate hikes,” although he stressed that many data points remain to be learned before the Fed’s next meeting on September 16, including the August employment report, two inflation data points, and the Jackson Hole symposium. In this regard, the expert does not rule out a possible rebound in employment in August, but believes that the Fed’s decision will likely depend more on the evolution of inflation, where a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could translate into lower gasoline prices and sustain the disinflationary trend through the end of the year and even beyond. Accordingly, ahead of the next Fed meetings, given expected encouraging inflation news, Knightley expects the U.S. central bank to keep rates unchanged well into 2027. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of last July, the Fed decided for the fifth consecutive time to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, though three of its nine members voted in favor of raising the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point.

(Washington) The U.S. job market showed signs of fatigue in July, bad news for American President Donald Trump, as purchasing power remains Americans’ main concern just months before the mid-term elections. In July, the U.S. job market lost 23,000 jobs, even as analysts had anticipated a modest gain of around 83,000 positions for the period, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch. The prior months also saw a sharp downward revision: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually removed 103,000 jobs during the period compared with initial estimates. In the end, only 83,000 jobs were created over the two-month period. But at the same time, the unemployment rate, which investors expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, fell to 4.1%. Two seemingly contradictory trends are nonetheless explained by a third data point: the labor force participation rate. This ratio takes into account the number of people participating in the labor market compared to the number of people of working age. It has fallen by 0.7 points since the start of the year. This represents several hundred thousand working-age people who are no longer part of the labor market, either because they are taking early retirement or because they have simply withdrawn from the labor market or have been excluded. “The size of the gap” between expectations and the reality of the labor market shows that “it could be losing steam and can no longer be considered a source of strength,” said Charlie Ripley, Allianz Investment Management’s head of investment strategy, in a commentary. In total, 6.9 million Americans are unemployed, including 1.8 million who are considered long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more). A worrying signal for the Fed. Job destruction primarily affects sectors such as local public education, neighborhood retail, and, to a lesser extent, financial services. Conversely, the health sector, which has been the main job provider in the United States for many months, continued its momentum but at a somewhat slower pace than in previous months. As for the manufacturing and commodities sectors, which were the focus of Donald Trump, they hardly changed, both for mining or hydrocarbon extraction and for construction and industry. Yet, Trump’s chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, told Fox News that “if we set aside [temporary jobs related to] the World Cup and local public employment, they would have an increase of 100,000 jobs.” “The sectors that were solid remain so—the construction, the industry, etc.,” he added. Industrial employment increased by 16,000 jobs between May and July, and construction by 3,000 jobs over the same period. The consequence of these employment statistics is that “this should lower expectations for a rise in Federal Reserve rates in the coming months,” Nationwide’s chief economist Kathy Bostjancic judged in a note. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged at its last meeting in July, keeping them in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, despite persistent inflation in the United States. However, signaling tensions within its monetary policy committee (FOMC), three members favored a rate hike, deeming that inflation had not been close enough to the Fed’s 2% target for too long. The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability and full employment; the fact that the labor market has remained solid so far has allowed it to focus first and foremost on inflation for its monetary policy decisions.

United States: 23,000 jobs lost in July, unemployment at 4.1% USA: 23,000 fewer jobs in July The U.S. labor market lost 23,000 jobs in July, according to data published Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), but unemployment fell to 4.1%, which contradicts analyst expectations in both cases. Markets had actually anticipated a much better trend, with 83,000 jobs created, a relatively low figure for the U.S. economy, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch. At the same time, the BLS significantly downwardly revised job gains for May and June, ultimately showing 103,000 fewer jobs created over the period than initial estimates. In the end, only 83,000 jobs were created over the two months. The drop in unemployment despite job losses is mainly explained by a continued decline in the labor force participation rate among Americans of working age. Since the start of the year, the participation rate has fallen by 0.7 percentage point, and the share of people employed relative to the total population by 0.5 percentage point, representing hundreds of thousands fewer people in the labor market. In total, 6.9 million Americans are unemployed, including 1.8 million considered long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more). Job losses primarily affected sectors such as local public education, retail trade, and to a lesser extent, financial services. Conversely, the health care sector, which has been the main job provider in the United States for many months, continued its streak but at a slightly slower pace than in previous months. Regarding the manufacturing and raw materials sector, which are the areas President Donald Trump has focused on, they hardly evolved, with little change in mining or hydrocarbons extraction as well as construction and industry. Finally, hotel and food service as well as leisure saw little variation, despite the World Cup being held during this period, which mainly took place in the United States.

The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, a sign that the labor market had not stabilized after four months of positive growth. The unemployment rate ticked down only slightly to 4.1%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting the release to show 83,000 added roles, more than June’s 57,000. In yet another troubling sign for the labor market, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it revised down the prior two months by a combined 103,000. May’s jobs total was cut by 66,000 to 129,000 total jobs added, while June’s total was lowered by 37,000 to a total gain of 57,000. The hiring data comes against a complicated economic backdrop. The U.S. war with Iran continues without any kind of agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, energy prices remain elevated, even if they are off their highest levels of the year. The change in workers’ average hourly earnings also fell well short of economists’ expectations. Wage growth was 0.1% from June, or 3.2% from one year ago. That’s also below inflation, which was 3.5% in its most recent reading. “That’s the number that many Americans are focused on right now,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told NBC News. Long pointed out that 3.2% was the lowest wage growth has been in five years. “At the same time, inflation is heating back up again.” Economists had been expecting wages to continue pacing at 3.5% from a year ago. “The labor market is stalling again,” Long said, also calling the report “bleak.” Long also pointed to another troubling data point: The labor force participation rate in July was the lowest since February 2021, a sign that workers are dropping out of the workforce. “It’s pretty shocking,” she said. “Over two million people have left the labor force since November.” “The magnitude of the payroll miss suggests the labor market may be losing momentum and can no longer be considered the pillar of strength,” said Allianz investment strategist Charlie Ripley. The average price of regular gasoline also remains high, at $4.04 per gallon as of Friday morning, up 36% since Feb. 28, when the Iran war began. Inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target at 3.5%. Wages are struggling to keep pace. The BLS said employment contracted the most in “local government education,” which declined by 50,000 roles, likely reflecting teachers during summer break. It also flagged a contraction of 19,000 roles in the retail industry. The financial industry shed 14,000 roles. The leisure and hospitality industry also contracted by 40,000 jobs. Economists watch this figure closely because a significant loss at hotels and restaurants could be an early warning sign of a shift in consumer spending. “In July, employment in health care continued its upward trend,” the BLS said, noting a gain of 22,000 jobs. But it said, that was “a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.” The agency’s data also showed a 5,000 payroll gain in the manufacturing sector in July and an additional 22,000 roles in construction. These bright spots come as the AI data center boom has benefited some industries, but deeply divided many communities where the centers are located. “Employment showed little change” in July in the mining, oil & gas, transportation and professional & business services sectors, according to BLS. Stocks rose after the report, as investors who were concerned the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates breathed a sigh of relief. The S&P 500 jumped 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite index increased 1%. The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium size firms which can be more sensitive to rate changes, rose 0.9%. Bond yields dropped, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to around 4.6%. That Treasury bond specifically drives the direction of consumer lending rates, such as for mortgages, credit cards and personal loans. Friday’s report likely eases some pressure on the Federal Reserve, which had been widely expected to hike the federal funds rate — potentially as soon as September. Before the report, the futures market indicated the odds of a September rate hike were over 50%. After Friday’s jobs numbers were released, those odds fell to about 40%.

WASHINGTON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July and previously reported job gains for the prior two months were revised sharply lower, tempering financial market expectations for an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month. While the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% last month from 4.2% in June, that was because another 264,000 people left the labor force, pushing the participation rate to a near 5-1/2-year low of 61.4%. Sign up here. Job growth, however, has a tendency to slow down during summer, a phenomenon that economists attributed to difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations. Much of the decline in payrolls, the first in five months, was centered in local government education. There was a second straight month of job losses in the leisure and hospitality industry, attributed by economists to the fading boost from the FIFA World Cup. Economists urged against interpreting the data as a sign of an abrupt deterioration in the labor market. "This is the third summer in a row that we have seen unexpected weakness in the labor market," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. "Policymakers broadly see the labor market as stable." Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 80,000 after advancing by a previously reported 57,000 in June. Estimates ranged from as low as 10,000 to as high as 140,000 jobs added. The economy added 103,000 fewer jobs in May and June than previously estimated. Last year's big downgrades to the two months led to President Donald Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer. Trump, without offering evidence, accused McEntarfer of manipulating the data. Job growth averaged 20,000 per month over the past three months. It averaged 77,000 per month in the three months through June. Financial markets priced in a 43.9% chance of the U.S. central bank hiking rates in September, compared with 57% before the jobs report, according to LSEG data. The Fed last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Three members of the Fed's policy-setting committee dissented, preferring a quarter-percentage-point hike. Next week's inflation data could sharpen the debate on the near-term monetary policy outlook. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. U.S. Treasury yields fell, while the dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. LOCAL GOVERNMENT EDUCATION DRAG Local government education employment dropped 49,600 last month, the most since October 2021, and contributing to a 53,000 decrease in overall government payrolls. Excluding government, private payrolls increased by 30,000, matching June's gain. Economists expected the slump in local government, which they said was a seasonal quirk, to reverse in August. Leisure and hospitality employment decreased by 40,000, losing jobs for a second straight month. Payrolls at restaurants and bars dropped by 26,100. The retail trade sector lost 19,000 jobs, the bulk of them at warehouse clubs, supercenters and other general merchandise stores. Employment in financial activities fell further, shedding 14,000 jobs. Financial activities jobs are down by 121,000 since peaking in May 2025. Healthcare payrolls increased 22,000, but well below the monthly average of 36,000 over the past year. There were 22,000 construction jobs added, while manufacturing employment rose 5,000. The share of industries reporting job growth fell to 51.8% from 53.2% in June. Despite weakness in job growth, the average workweek held at 34.3 hours. But wage growth slowed, increasing 3.2% year-on-year after rising 3.4% in June. Details of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived were mostly weak. Household employment dropped 87,000 and the number of people working part-time for economic reasons increased 123,000 to 4.804 million. The median duration of unemployment fell to a still-elevated 10.5 weeks from 11.0 weeks in June. The participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, has declined in six of the past seven months. "It isn't lights out yet for the economic outlook, but the future is dim if pessimism leads to more dropouts and companies cannot get the help they need to produce the goods and services the economy needs to grow," said Christopher Rupkey, chief U.S. economist at FWDBONDS. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Will Dunham, Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

US unexpectedly loses jobs in July, in blow to Trump’s economy claims This reflects potential weakness in the labour market of the world’s largest economy after months of steady growth The US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, government data showed, a blow to US President Donald Trump’s claims of leading an economic revival as his Republican Party gears up for crucial midterm elections.. The unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy ticked down to 4.1 per cent, according to data published on Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since taking office for his second term, Trump has unleashed a spate of policies aimed at reviving domestic manufacturing and curbing surging inflation. Republicans face a stiff test in November’s midterm elections, with the state of the economy a key issue for Democrats who are seeking to wrest back control of both houses of Congress. Friday’s data will also pose a question to the US Federal Reserve, which has been signalling it was preparing for a rate hike later this year. Employment declined in the local government education and retail trade sectors, while it continued to grow in healthcare, the BLS said in a statement.

US warns of jobs drop, a blow to Trump’s claims about the economy The United States lost 23,000 jobs in July, according to official data published on Friday, dealing a blow to President Donald Trump’s assertions that he is leading an economic recovery, just as his Republican Party gears up for crucial midterm elections. Despite this figure, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, a figure that even undercuts analysts’ expectations. The market had anticipated the creation of 83,000 jobs last month, a relatively modest figure for the U.S. economy, in line with MarketWatch consensus. Job gains occurred in local government, education, and retail, while gains continued in health care, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. – Why did unemployment fall? – Despite these figures, the unemployment rate was slightly lower than in June (4.2%) and May (4.3%), due to the steady decline in the labor force participation rate among Americans of working age. In total, 6.9 million people are unemployed in the United States, of whom 1.8 million are considered long-term unemployed (more than 27 weeks). This reflects a reduction in the supply of labor while the U.S. economy contends with an aging population and lower net immigration. – Blow to Trump – Since taking office for a second term, Trump has pushed a series of policies aimed at reviving the domestic industry and containing inflation. The Republicans face a tough test in the November midterm elections, with the economy’s status as a key issue for Democrats who seek to regain control of both chambers of Congress. Friday’s data will also pose a question for the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has indicated it is preparing to raise interest rates to combat price increases later this year. – And the rates? – In addition to July’s job loss, the report revised down employment growth for the previous two months by 103,000 jobs, showing the labor market is not as solid as previously reported. With the new figures, employment growth peaked in March before slowing in the following three months and turning negative in July. The decline and revisions to prior months will raise concerns: the labor market may not be as strong as once thought. Federal Reserve policymakers continue to monitor the labor market closely, as their dual mandate requires them to seek maximum employment while keeping inflation at a long-term 2% target. The Fed has missed that target for five years, while inflation has hit American households since the pandemic. Last month, the central bank left rates unchanged, but three regional presidents voted in favor of a rate increase. Higher rates make credit more expensive and discourage consumption and investment, cooling the economy and thus price rises. “Today’s report changes the playbook in the sense that all recent attention had focused on inflation, and this report also highlights the risks present in the labor market,” said Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management. “Prior to today, many expected the Fed would have no choice but to raise rates to combat persistently high inflation because the labor market was strong. But this report shows that’s not the case,” he added. – Losses in retail – Retail lost 19,000 jobs, with employment falling at companies such as Costco, Sam’s Club, and others that offer wholesale home goods discounts. Employment in the financial activities sector continued its downward trend, with a loss of 14,000 jobs. Employment in this sector sits 121,000 jobs below its May 2025 peak. The health sector has buoyed the U.S. job market over the past year, with an aging population requiring more medical care. In July, the sector added 22,000 jobs.

US employers unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July and gains for the previous two months were revised down sharply by a combined 103,000 jobs, painting a weaker picture of the labor market than past data indicated. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%. Economists had projected an unchanged unemployment rate and 83,000 new jobs for the month. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics illustrates the continued summer slump in job growth amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Pressure has been mounting within the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat persistently high inflation, but July’s job report and its latest revisions may cool those expectations at the central bank’s next meeting. July’s job losses were concentrated in local government education, with 50,000 jobs lost, and retail, which lost 19,000. The private sector, however, gained 30,000 jobs, with growth focused once again in healthcare. Hourly earnings of all employees changed little over the past year, increasing by 3.2% compared to last year. Next week’s consumer pricing data will reveal whether these gains have kept pace with inflation. Figures for May were revised to 63,000 jobs added, down from an initially reported 129,000 jobs, while figures for June dropped 37,000, to 20,000 jobs added. In total, job figures for May and June were revised down 103,000 jobs. In June, the US added 57,000 jobs, about half of what economists had predicted, with most of the growth concentrated in healthcare and social assistance. The unemployment rate had also dropped to 4.2% in June, down from 4.3% in May, driven by 720,000 people leaving the workforce. Other data had pointed toward a slowdown in July. Private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, according to the payroll firm ADP, a significant drop from the 98,000 jobs added in June recorded by the firm. Job openings decreased by 178,000 to 7.4m in June, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Job openings in healthcare and social assistance, key areas of job growth, declined by 147,000 in June, the largest decline since July 2025. Economists have long said the US labor market is in a “low-hire, low-fire” state, and recent data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas found that layoffs in July plunged compared with last year. US-based employers announced about 33,500 job cuts in July, the lowest month in two years. Though consumer spending has remained resilient, increasing by 0.3% in June 2026, the personal savings rate for Americans in June 2026 hit a four-year low at 2.7%, the lowest rate since June 2022, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. “With immigration having largely been stopped – and possibly now a net negative – the labor force is growing very slowly,” wrote Dean Baker, economist and co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, in a post on what to expect from the July jobs report. “However, slower wage growth, even in the face of rising inflation, indicates it is not a very good labor market for most workers. That story does not seem likely to change any time soon.” Economists are closely watching the labor market and inflation as officials at Fed have become divided on whether to raise interest rates or leave them unchanged. Though the Fed held rates steady last month, officials indicated that they expect at least one rate hike before the end of the year to combat price increases. The annualized inflation rate in June was 3.5% – 0.8% higher than a year prior. Inflation data scheduled to be released next week will probably be “the deciding factor” for the next rate meeting, Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a statement. “If those numbers come in hotter than expected, a cooler labor market may not be enough to quiet the calls for hikes inside the Fed, or lower expectations outside of it,” she said. Democrats are already criticizing Donald Trump for the worse-than-expected report. In a statement on Friday morning, the Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren said: “President Trump’s failing economic agenda is weakening the labor market. “Job growth in May and June was revised down by more than 100,000 jobs, job openings have fallen and more people are out of the labor force than at any time on record. And wage growth slowed, straining families’ paychecks even more as they struggle to keep up with Trump’s inflation,” Warren added.

U.S. Hiring Slumps, a Worrying Sign for the Economy Employers shed 23,000 jobs in July, and gains in previous months were revised down sharply, in a downbeat report that suggests the labor market is weaker than previously believed. Monthly change in jobs Latest The labor market posted a modest loss in July, as businesses shed jobs in the face of renewed tariffs and higher costs driven by war in the Middle East. Employers cut 23,000 positions on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1 percent as hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. The lower-than-expected reading comes after what had appeared to be a surge in job creation in March and April, born of optimism around tax cuts, a respite from new tariffs, easing interest rates and lower inflation. Since then, costs have jumped as oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have remained stalled, while the Trump administration has renewed its battle against imports. Job gains for April and May were revised down by 103,000, bringing the monthly average for 2026 to 60,000. “We have a labor market that’s stable but stuck in second gear,” said Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at the consulting firm EY-Parthenon. “We still have an environment where those supply shocks are working their way through the economy, and a lot of uncertainty, and that will keep businesses cautious in hiring.” The slack hiring comes while layoffs have remained consistently low, corporate profits are high and consumer spending has held up remarkably well even as expensive gasoline weighs on wallets. Job openings, the rate of hiring and the share of people quitting their jobs have stopped falling. Those indicators suggest that companies are not looking to slash payrolls at the moment. But they have been investing heavily in artificial intelligence, which has subdued hiring for certain roles and weakened workers’ leverage to bargain for higher wages. Hourly earnings grew 3.2 percent over the year, the slowest pace since May 2021 and likely less than the rise in prices over the same period. July’s Consumer Price Index reading will be released on Aug. 12. Wages vs. inflation July’s data may disrupt the Federal Reserve’s relative comfort with the state of the labor market, as committee members weigh raising interest rates to combat war-driven inflation. The Fed will get another jobs report before meeting again in September. The hiring slump is especially pronounced in the collection of occupations that make up the technology sector, which have shrunk 3.8 percent since peaking in 2022, according to an analysis by the employer review website Glassdoor. “It’s a sharp reversal from what we’ve seen in the past,” said Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao. “It’s also coming at a time when there’s an incredible amount of hype in the tech industry around data centers, and it’s just not showing up in the employment numbers.” Glassdoor’s measure of employee confidence reached its lowest level on record in July, and the share of consumers who judged that jobs were “hard to get” rose to its highest level since January 2021, according to surveys by the Conference Board. One place data centers are showing up: the construction industry, which added 22,000 jobs. Nearly all of them are on commercial projects, as home building remains pressured by high interest rates. Massive data center building sites in states like Texas, Ohio and Virginia are creating stiff competition for other contractors, especially as demand for new industrial space starts to recover. For Neely Sadowski, the president of construction at the Missner Group, a Chicago-area developer, it has meant committing to hire workers far in advance for the new projects they’re starting to envision. She’s having a hard time finding site superintendents, and relying more heavily on recruiters. “There are really no electricians in the union hall right now,” Ms. Sadowski said. “A lot of them are traveling to go work on data centers because of the money that is being offered. So it’s a challenge for sure.” The other remaining source of new employment is health care, which has powered nearly all of the growth over the past few years. The sector added 22,000 positions in July, a markedly slower rate than the prior 12 months. Hiring in temporary help services, which represents people staffed to employers in a variety of industries, has also been steadily rising after a long downward slide that reversed course over the winter. “While employers have tamped down on hiring, they still have work that they need people to do,” said the American Staffing Association’s chief economist, Noah Yusif. Companies are turning to fixed employment contracts for specific assignments, he noted, which allows them to accommodate higher orders without committing to full-time employees. The weakest spots in the report came from leisure and hospitality, which has shed 80,000 jobs over the past two months despite excitement around the World Cup boosting labor markets in host cities. Local government education also shrank by 50,000 positions, which may be a seasonal quirk having to do with the timing of schools getting out for the summer. The White House seized on the weakness in public sector hiring and a small gain in manufacturing employment. “The Trump industrial resurgence is on schedule,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, in a statement. “The Trump administration is focused on unleashing more private-sector job growth through President Trump’s proven economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and energy abundance.” But rather than strong demand for labor, the drop in the unemployment rate resulted from a contraction in the number of people looking for work. The labor force participation rate for people in their prime working years, between ages 25 and 54, recovered only slightly from a large drop in June. For all ages, the participation rate sank to its lowest level outside the pandemic recession since 1976, when women were just starting to work in large numbers. Aside from retirements, the most obvious cause of the declining work force is the White House’s ongoing campaign to expel immigrants, who tend to hold jobs at higher rates than native-born Americans. That effort was aided in June by Supreme Court, which allowed temporary protected status to lapse for hundreds of thousands of people from Haiti and other countries. The resulting shrinkage has kept unemployment low, even amid tepid demand for workers. “All our fears were misplaced from a year ago when we were entering the fall and realizing ‘wait a second, is joblessness about to pick up?’” said Andrew Flowers, chief economist with the recruitment advertising firm Appcast. “Actually no, it’s the opposite; it’s the immigration restrictions are starting to bite.” Fewer people coming in to the labor force is little comfort for those who have been on the job market for months. The median number of weeks of unemployment, which stood at 10.5 in July, has been gradually rising since 2022. Matthew Glidden lost his job as a program manager at the audio hardware company Sonos in 2023. He’s been job hunting since then, but has gotten less personal outreach from hiring managers as the ranks of the unemployed tech workers grew. Lately, he’s leaned into his passion, sports history, and started freelancing. He’s been marketing his writing and research skills to hobby groups and auction houses, where interest in custom collectible card sets has been booming. It’s generating a small income as he hopes for his original profession to recover, which, he recognizes, may not. “I’ve been the last paperboy. I’ve been one of the last people in a phone center. I’ve been now maybe the last major wave for program managers,” said Mr. Glidden, 54. “Seeing those kinds of transitions makes me think that this is more of a natural transition, as unnatural as it seems.” Tony Romm contributed reporting. Speaking to reporters this morning, Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, tried to make the case that the economy remained strong despite the poor jobs report that was released today. Citing a burst in factory construction — and the jobs that would help create — Hassett said the administration remains “very bullish, even when there’s numbers like today,” which he described as “temporary.” “In the end, you know, the proof will be in the number that we get next month,” Hassett told reporters, acknowledging the real concern would arise “if you were to get a sequence of numbers like this” because there are not “going to be special factors every month.” One of the most fascinating things about this labor market is that you can fairly characterize it as impressively steady or steadily unimpressive. Sources of job growth have sharply narrowed. Yet the unemployment rate has now been at or below 4.5 percent since October 2021, the longest streak since the late 1960s. Change in jobs by sector since 2022 Advertisement SKIP ADVERTISEMENTKeith Sonderling took over at the Labor Department in April; this is his fourth jobs day statement. He has not once cited the health care sector, which has been a primary driver of job growth over the last year. His primary audience is the White House, which wants to hear about manufacturing, construction and the shrinking of the federal government. The acting labor secretary, Keith Sonderling, highlighted the upside of today’s jobs report, noting “continued growth in private sector employment, adding 30,000 jobs in July and 426,000 this year.” (The latter figure actually refers to net gains — private sector jobs are up 505,000.) Sonderling also cited gains in construction and manufacturing, which he attributed to “trillions of dollars of investments that are pouring into the United States.” In fact, experts have pointed to the boom in data centers as the primary driver of nonresidential construction growth this year. Manufacturing gained 5,000 jobs in July, but is still down overall since President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day, when he announced tariffs on foreign countries last year. July’s jobs report has reduced some of the urgency around the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but it has not eliminated the possibility. Officials at the central bank instead appear much more sensitive to how price pressures are evolving, with heightened focus on next week’s inflation report. Officials at the Fed have maintained for months that the labor market is not a primary driver of inflation, but that it is instead fueled by surging energy prices because of the war with Iran and other supply-related shocks. July’s jobs report made that abundantly clear. Employers shed 23,000 jobs for the month, and the past two months of jobs growth were sharply revised down. More people exited the work force as well, helping to drag down the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent. And wage growth remained subdued. The combination suggests that the economy is not on as strong a footing as many have perceived it to be, which helps the case that rate increases from the Fed are not immediately necessary. But for that position to strengthen, the inflation data would need to cooperate. Officials have grown increasingly impatient about the lack of progress toward the central bank’s 2 percent target. The Fed has overshot that level for half a decade and has moved further away from it over the past year, not only because of the Iran war, but also President Trump’s tariffs and other factors. That impatience has been reinforced by a pledge from Kevin M. Warsh, the new chairman, to make delivering price stability the primary focus of his tenure. While Mr. Warsh has not explicitly articulated how he will deliver on that goal — an approach that has sparked volatility across financial markets — his colleagues have been much more direct about their plans. Most policymakers have indicated that if inflation does not soon ease, they will support higher rates. At least five officials have indicated that borrowing costs should have already been raised. Three of them are voting members on the policy-setting committee this year and voted against the Fed’s decision last week to hold rates steady at a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. That stance suggests that the forthcoming inflation data will play an outsized role in determining whether officials feel compelled to support a rate rise at their next meeting in mid-September. After the release of July’s jobs report, investors scaled back their expectations of a September increase. The first quarter-point increase is penciled in for December. The next Consumer Price Index report will be released on Aug. 12. It will cover a period in which oil prices surged again after a re-escalation of the Iran war. Those prices have fallen back toward their prewar levels in recent days, however, on hopes of a deal to end the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused severe supply disruptions. Economists expect consumer prices to have inched lower in July, according to estimates aggregated by Bloomberg. On a monthly basis, they expect “core” prices, which strip out volatile food and energy items, to have risen 0.2 percent. A faster pace would likely motivate more officials to consider raising rates soon, even after July’s weak jobs report. “The people who have talked about rate hikes have done so because of inflation, not because of the labor market,” said Eric Winograd, chief U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein. “I don’t believe that this takes a rate hike off the table.” Advertisement SKIP ADVERTISEMENTKevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, sought to argue today that the latest hiring report was not as bad as it appeared. Appearing on Fox Business, he attributed the loss of jobs in July to a series of factors. That includes a “big decline in government workers,” which he later described as a “weird seasonal” quirk related to snow causing some school years to run long, delaying teacher layoffs. Hassett also cited a “big decline in hospitality workers around the end of the World Cup.” So, by that logic, Hassett then concluded: “If you take those two things out, it was about a 100,000 month, and I think that that’s a fair thing to do here, because that’s about consistent with everything else we’re seeing.” The Senate could vote as early as today to confirm President Trump’s pick as the new Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Brett Matsumoto, and one of his biggest challenges, assuming he is confirmed, will be the declining response rates to the surveys the government uses to collect economic data. There has been some tentative good news on that lately, though. Just under 70 percent of businesses surveyed by the government responded in time for today’s report, the highest collection rate for the initial jobs estimate in more than two years (other than a couple months that were skewed by the government shutdown last fall). Response rates are still way down over the longer run, however, and fewer employers are agreeing to participate in the survey at all. “For the housing market, a cooler labor

The U.S. economy recorded a loss of 23,000 jobs in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a result that contrasts with President Donald Trump’s claims about the strength of the economic recovery and that comes just months before the midterm legislative elections. Unlike the 83,000 new jobs expected; it contrasts with the job figures from the two previous months which were revised downward by 103,000 positions, reflecting a labor market weaker than initially estimated. It should be noted that the unemployment rate fell from 4.2 to 4.1 percent, mainly due to a lower participation rate among those of working age in the labor market, driven by an aging population and lower immigration. The sectors most affected were retail trade, local governments, education, and financial activities, while the health sector continued to generate jobs thanks to the growing demand for medical services. Experts warned that the report could influence upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, which are evaluating a possible rate hike to contain inflation.