Iran · updated 1h ago · 2 min read
Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Surge as Saudi Pivot Follows Houthi Red Sea Attacks
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million bpd last week, near prewar levels. Saudi shipments through Hormuz reached 2.58 million bpd in September, about 43% of strait traffic.
Whether the main driver is Iranian pressure or US protection.
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The New York Times
“A U.S. military operation aimed at protecting the vessels from the attacks appears to have encouraged more shipments”Read the original ↗
Al Jazeera foregrounds alleged Iranian military pressure, while The New York Times foregrounds a US protection effect on shipping.
Hormuz bottleneck reshapes flows
Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged as Gulf producers, with support from the US Navy, jam crude through the chokepoint, with flows averaging 13.1 million barrels per day last week, according to Kpler. The National tied the rise to a Saudi pivot after Houthi attacks restricted its Red Sea route, saying Saudi shipments through Hormuz jumped to 2.58 million barrels per day in September from around one million bpd in August. Combined volumes from all exporters through Hormuz, Bab Al Mandeb and the Suez Canal fell to 9.99 million bpd in September from 12.17 million bpd in August, leaving flows 61 per cent below February levels.
In September an average of 10 million barrels of oil has gone through the waterway daily, while six million barrels of crude a day has left the Persian Gulf states this month through pipelines and ports that bypass the strait. Iran shipped just 100,000 bpd under the US naval blockade, compared with 2.5 million bpd in February.
Sanctions relief tied to nuclear
President Donald Trump said he is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds only if Tehran offers “concrete progress” on the nuclear issue, as a US official told CNN. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is awaiting the final U.S. reply, and that reopening the strait remains tied to meeting its conditions, while Trump said talks with the intermediaries are ongoing during the week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered to reopen Hormuz within seven days if Washington lifted its blockade and sanctions during the UN General Assembly, but it said Trump rejected the offer on September 26.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that oil flows through the strait were averaging nearly 13 million barrels a day, and that shipments exceeded pre-conflict levels on at least one day last week. Overall total Hormuz flows remain less than a third of February's 20.64 million bpd, highlighting continued disruption to the Gulf's main oil export artery.
Threats, injuries, and wider costs
Iran claimed success in attacking ships near the Strait of Hormuz, including US Navy vessels, saying the strikes forced Washington to move its warships further from the Iranian coast. Al Jazeera reported that US media said eight US Marines had suffered from smoke inhalation and potential traumatic brain injuries on September 14 after being targeted by an Iranian antiship cruise missile in the Strait of Hormuz. AThe Pentagon had earlier quietly added 29 US sailors and eight Marines to its list of war-wounded, increasing the total since the start of the war on February 28 to 861 service members, and it said at least 19 deaths have been recorded.
Al Jazeera also described how Hormuz reshaped global supply chains, with fertilizer crossings through Hormuz falling from about 2.85 million tons per month to around 560,000 tons in August. AMaersk announced an additional $3,000 surcharge on the container itself under the emergency charges, and it said another $1,000 is added if the ship passes through the Hormuz Strait.