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Hormuz dispute flares
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States of violating the Strait of Hormuz provisions of a post-war memorandum of understanding, saying Washington sought to undermine Tehran’s authority by opening an alternative shipping corridor.
Araghchi said Article 5 assigns Iran responsibility for restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz within one month, including determining shipping routes and carrying out mine-clearing operations, and he rejected criticism that the clause was ambiguous.
He argued the United States opened a separate southern corridor about 10 days after the strait was reopened, despite two weeks remaining before the agreed implementation deadline, and he said Tehran had warned Washington through a direct communication line and through Qatari and Pakistani mediators.
Araghchi also linked the escalation to regional developments after U.S. President Donald Trump announced on July 8 that the ceasefire outlined in the Islamabad MoU was no longer in effect, and he said the U.S. and Iran have exchanged strikes since then.
Talks, threats, and oil
While Araghchi told Iran’s state-run newspaper that “The article is completely clear from our perspective,” the CNBC report said Trump is considering a “massive attack” on Iran and that Pakistan is reportedly seeking to restart stalled peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.
CNBC quoted Trump saying, “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” and it also said U.S. forces have pummeled Iranian targets over the past two weeks with Central Command completing a 13th consecutive night of strikes.
In parallel, Rapidan Energy Group forecast that the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could keep Brent crude near $100 per barrel through 2026, raising its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to about $100 per barrel from $85.
Rapidan warned Brent could climb to $105 per barrel if hopes for a peace deal fade, and it said the forecast assumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will only partially recover by late next year.
Mediation plans and next steps
As fighting and maritime tensions continued, a separate report said diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions entered a new phase since Friday, including discussions of a new mediation plan to lift the siege of Iran’s ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“President Donald Trump said he will soon make a decision on whether to launch a "massive attack" on Iran after the conflict in the Middle East extended to a new battleground in the Red Sea”
That report said Axios reported mediators proposed a plan that includes lifting the siege of Iran’s ports, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a proposal to receive security provision fees from ships passing through by Tehran.
In Iran’s account of the dispute, Araghchi told the state newspaper Iran that Washington could have resolved ambiguities through dialogue and by following the natural course of Clause 5, but chose an “alternative path.”
He said the United States’ use of the southern route began about ten days after the Strait’s reopening and that Tehran describes the move as “malicious,” while he emphasized it was expected the American side would allow the deadline set for assessing Clause 5 implementation to expire before judging compliance.
